Cue the crystal balls.

The future is hard to predict amid the COVID-induced uncertainty of our times, but ASI Vice Chairman Matthew Cohn challenged a quartet of industry leaders to get out their crystal balls (metaphorically speaking) and do just that as it regards the promotional products industry.

The resulting insights came to the fore during a panel discussion at the 2021 ASI Power Summit on Thursday, Oct. 14.

The upshot? Ample challenges and uncertainties exist due to COVID-19, supply chain disruption and inflationary pressures, but the majority opinion was that collective industry sales will rise in 2022 and again in 2023, possibly surpassing the record distributor revenue of $25.7 billion experienced in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year.

Panelist Dan Pantano said some in the industry are already surpassing 2019 sales levels – a trend he thinks will apply broadly within the industry in 2022 and 2023.

Matthew Cohn, ASI; Sai Koppaka, DiscountMugs.com; Dan Pantano, alphabroder; Brenda Angelini, Proforma Angelini, Martin & Associates; and CJ Schmidt, Hit Promotional Products engaged in the panel discussion on promo’s future.  

“There are big unknowns around supply chain and inflation, but overall demand for promotional products is incredibly strong and I expect it to remain very healthy,” said Pantano, a member of Counselor’s Power 50 list of promo’s most influential people and CEO of Top 40 supplier alphabroder (asi/34063).

Sai Koppaka is especially bullish.

The president/CEO of vertically integrated, e-commerce-driven Top 40 distributor DiscountMugs.com (asi/181120) thinks 2022 sales will outpace 2019’s tally. For 2023, he predicts double-digit growth over 2019.

“We expect demand to get significantly better,” said Koppaka, also a Power 50 member.

Still, not every panelist predicted sales acceleration.

CJ Schmidt, president/CEO of Top 40 supplier Hit Promotional Products (asi/61125), believes overall industry sales in 2023 will be flat compared to 2019. He suspects ample consolidation will occur in promo, which will allow larger players to get bigger and gain market share, while smaller firms will find it harder to compete.

“Larger companies will potentially grow more,” said Schmidt, a Power 50 member.

“There are big unknowns around supply chain and inflation, but overall demand for promotional products is incredibly strong and I expect it to remain very healthy.” Dan Pantano, alphabroder

Beyond sales predictions, the panel discussion delved into a host of other pressing issues facing promo. Panelists shared how they’re trying to stay nimble and adapt to today’s challenges, particularly as customer demands for speed and product options intensify in the Amazon-influenced marketplace, all while COVID-caused impediments persist.

Brenda Angelini, president of sales at Proforma Angelini, Martin & Associates (asi/491557), shared that she and her team have been proactive in educating clients about the supply chain fiascos promo is experiencing and getting clients to order far in advance of in-hands dates.

“We’ve got most holiday orders booked already,” Angelini said.

She’s also gotten more dexterous in sourcing, building relationships with more suppliers, including domestic manufacturers, so she can find client-desired products and get them to end-users efficiently. Getting clients to approve several product options up front has been a wise, efficiency-enhancing tactic in these times of inventory shortfalls, she said.

Meanwhile, Pantano, Schmidt and Koppaka shared how their companies are aggregating a wealth of data and building complex, multi-track forecasting models in order to be in the best position to order the right amount of inventory in time to have it stocked when it’s needed.

To bulwark supply chains and make them deliver faster, sourcing from a wider array of countries, a trend that began before COVID, will continue, panelists said. Still, China will likely remain the dominant manufacturer of promo goods sold in North America, the executives said.

Given current labor shortages and difficulties with hiring/retention in the U.S., all four panelists said they’re acutely focused on fostering strong cultures that make their companies attractive places to be for current and prospective employees.

Beyond various camaraderie-building and recognition initiatives, Koppaka said it’s important to demonstrate to valued employees that they have a bright future at your company. This happens through clear communication from management.

“We want people to know what their career path looks like here,” he said, noting that providing such clarity can help with retention, as talented employees could be compelled to stay onboard rather than seek what they might perceive to be greater opportunity elsewhere.

Looking ahead, panelists said that, to compete viably both within promo and with other marketing mediums, industry firms will have to keep bolstering their capabilities through technology, providing value to end-buyers by being problem-solvers, cultivating excellent workplace cultures and more.

One last thing to be aware of as a major trend? “Print on demand,” said Schmidt. “It’s a massive new growth sector.”