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December Caps A Strong Year For Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment gives insight into the state of the economy -- important information for promotional products distributors.

Consumer sentiment in the United States averaged its highest level since 2000 this year. That’s according to the University of Michigan’s closely-watched Index of Consumer Sentiment, which averaged monthly readings of 98.4 in 2018. It was the second best annual average of the 21st century, the high being 107.6 in 2000.

“Over the past half century, sentiment was higher in only two other time periods: 1964-65 and 1997-2000,” said Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist. “These periods correspond to the two longest prior expansions since the mid 1800's.”

For December, the sentiment index tallied 98.3, which beat economists’ expectations and surpassed November. A preliminary December reading put the index at 97.5 – the same as last month. The improved December reading comes despite the volatile stock market and ongoing trade tensions with China. Economic growth, strong employment on Main Street, and personal incomes that are going up has helped keep consumer sentiment high. Relatedly, the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 2% from a year ago and 3.4% from last month, with a reading of 116.1 in December.

Despite such confidence in the current situation, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Expectations fell in December, from 88.1 last month to 87 this month.

“Consumers reported more negative than positive news about job prospects for the first time in two years, with the shift widespread across socioeconomic subgroups,” said Curtin. “When asked about prospects for the national unemployment rate, 30% expected increases, up from last month's 22% and the highest percentage in two years.” Even so, sentiment was still strong. “Importantly,” Curtin said, “this still meant that 70% anticipated no increase in unemployment in the year ahead.”