Distributor Industry Sales

4Q 2011 Industry Sales Report: Industry Sales Increase 5.1%

Research by ASI

On January 11, 2012, ASI commissioned an exclusive survey to estimate industry sales for 2010. The industry outlook for 2012 was also included in the study. Invitations went to ASI distributor members who were the primary contact with their firms, and had been in business at least one year. The results of this survey will be published in Counselor PromoGram and on ASICentral.com.

A total of 573 distributor firms responded to the survey request out of 15,930 invited, resulting in a 4% response rate. An incentive of a drawing for $500 was offered. Larger distributors were over-sampled, with results then weighted for a more accurate analysis.

Beginning with the 1Q 2010 Sales Study, an ongoing participant panel has been implemented. There are 47 ASI members, all among the largest players in the industry, who have agreed to participate in each Quarterly Sales Study.  

The 1Q 2012 Sales Study Report will be published in April 2012.

Conclusions:

  • Total industry sales for 2011 were $18.5 billion, up 6.2% from 2010. Eighty-five percent of larger distributors (over $1 million in revenue) reported an increase in sales, while over two-thirds (70%) of all distributors reported an increase.

  • During the fourth quarter, there was a 6.5% year-over-year increase in sales among ASI distributor members. Over one-half (54%) of all distributors reported an increase in the fourth quarter, with distributorships of at least $250,000 in annual revenue reporting greater percentage increases in sales than small distributorships.

  • Distributors are uniformly optimistic about sales for 2012, particularly the largest distributors. More than three-quarters (77%) of all distributors feel sales for 2012 will be higher than sales in 2011. The forecasted increase among the largest distributorships is 11.9%

Detailed Findings:

How did your annual 2011 sales compare to your annual 2010 sales?

  • Over two-thirds (70%) of distributors reported higher sales in 2011 than in 2010. More than three times as many distributors saw an increase as experienced a decrease in sales in 2011 compared to 2010.

2012 Sales vs. 2011 Sales

How did your annual 2011 sales compare to your annual 2010 sales?(By company size)

  • As the size of the distributorship increased, so did the proportion with higher sales in 2011 than 2010. Nearly eighty five percent of larger distributors (over $1 million in sales) reported an increase, compared to less than two thirds (64.2%) of smaller distributors (less than $250,000 in sales)

2012 Sales vs. 2011 Sales By company size

How did your fourth quarter 2011 sales compare to your fourth quarter 2010 sales?

  • Over one-half (54%) of respondents reported an increase in sales in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the fourth quarter of 2010.

4Q '12 Sales vs. 4Q '11 Sales

  • The fourth quarter year over year sales was an increase of 6.5%, the highest since the first quarter of 2011.

  • Distributors with revenue over $250,000 accounted for the lion’s share of the industry increase, as they represent approximately three-quarters of industry revenue. Distributors with revenue below $1 million have accounted for minor increases throughout the year.

Current Quarter Sales vs. Quarter Year Ago

Industry Sales vs. Same Quarter Prior Year

  • The increase in sales of 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011 in sales of 9.3% was the eight straight quarter of increasing sales. Revenue increases throughout 2010 were very consistent. The fourth quarter increase reversed a trend of declining growth since the first quarter of the year.

Industry Sales Revenue % Change vs. Year Ago Quarter

Current Quarter Sales vs. Same Quarter One Year Ago

  • Quarterly Sales Study Reports since 3Q 2009 have continued to show a rebound in the percentage of distributor firms that felt the current quarter’s sales were greater than the corresponding quarter from the prior year.

    • Findings for 4Q 2011 vs. 4Q 2010 show 55% of distributor firms reported an increase in sales vs. the corresponding quarter in the prior year. This percentage has been fairly stable the last two years.

% Distributor Firms with Increase in Sales Qtrly Comparisons
(Source: ASI Quarterly Sales Study Reports)

How do you feel your sales for 2012 will compare to your sales for 2011?

  • Over three-quarters (77%) of distributor firms expect an increase in sales in 2011.

  • The number of distributor firms anticipating an increase is four times greater than those anticipating a decrease.

Sales Forecast 2012 vs. 2011

How do you feel your sales for 2012 will compare to your sales for all of 2012? (By company size)

  • The sales forecast among distributor firms for 2012 vs. 2011 shows consistency across different sized distributorships. About three-quarters of all sized distributor firms feel that sales in 2012 will be higher than in 2011.

  • The average forecasted increase is 13.6%, with the largest distributorships estimating an increase of 11.9%.

Sales Forecast 2013 vs. 2012 By Company Size